Peramalan penjualan roti kenari arjuns bakery di Kota Ternate Provinsi Maluku Utara

Ruslan Laisouw; Hamka Hamka

doi:10.29239/j.agrikan.6.2.28-32

Return to Article Details Peramalan penjualan roti kenari arjuns bakery di Kota Ternate Provinsi Maluku Utara Download this PDF file

Agrikan: Jurnal Agribisnis Perikanan

Volume 6, Issue 2, October 2013, Pages 28-32

RuslanLaisouw¹, Hamka²

¹: Universitas Muhammadiyah Maluku Utara, Ternate, Indonesia

²: Unievrsitas Muhammadiyah Maluku Utara, Ternate, Indonesia

Received 6 July 2013, Revised [Under Developments], Accepted [Under Developments], Published 10 October 2013, Available online 6 January 2018, Version of Record 5 November 2018.

https://doi.org/10.29239/j.agrikan.6.2.28-32 Get rights and content

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Abstract

Pada penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari Pola penjualan roti kenari yang di produksi oleh perusahaan Arjuns Bakery dan mengetahui peramalan roti kenari terbaik dengan menggunakan time serial untuk 3 bualan mendatang. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode time serial dengan menggunakan simple Average, Moving Average dan Simple Eksponensial Smoothing. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahawa pola penjualan roti kenari bersifat stasioner atau horisontal, dimana pergerakan data penjualan berada di sekitar rata-rata penjualan roti selama satu tahun sembilan bulan. Nilai peramalan yang diperoleh dengan menggunakan metode time serial adalah Simple Average dengan nilai peramalan 8060 dengan SE 572.84, Moving Average 7713 dengan nilai SE 558.72 yang dianggap baik untuk meramalkan penjualan roti untuk tiga bulan mendatang adalah metode Simple Eksponensial Smoothing dengan nilai peramalan penjualan roti kenari sebesar 7759 buah, dengan nilai SE sebesar 555.03.

Keywords

Peramalan, Penjualan, Time Serial

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UMMU

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