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ANALISIS PERAMALAN PRODUKSI ROTI PADA GOLDEN BAKERY DI KOTA TERNATE

1
, Indonesia.
2
Universitas Muhammadiyah Maluku Utara, Indonesia.
Corresponding Author
https://doi.org/10.29239/j.agrikan.10.1.60-64
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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan mendapatkan metode peramalan penjualan roti yang tepat di Golden Bakery untuk 3 bulan ke depan. Mengingat banyaknya jenis roti yang diproduksi maka penelitian ini dibatasi untuk roti tawar sisir dan cokelat sisir. Metode peramalan yang digunakan, yaitu: metode rata-rata sederhana (simple average), metode rata-rata bergerak (moving average), metode pemulusan eksponensial (simple exponential smoothing). Peramalan penjualan roti tiga bulan yang akan datang menggunakan metode yang terbaik, yaitu metode yang menghasilkan nilai kesalahan terkecil. Metode kesalahan peramalan yang digunakan yaitu The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dan Mean Squared Error (MSE). Hasil penelitian  menunjukkan metode Simple Average memiliki nilai MSE terkecil yaitu 580 dan nilai peramalan produksi adalah 906. Berdasarkan pendekatan nilai MSE maka Golden Bakery dapat memprediksi produksi selama 3 bulan ke depan dengan pendekatan Simple Average sebesar 906 buah roti tiap bulannya. Sedangkan untuk roti cokelat sisir, maka metode Simple Average memiliki nilai MSE terkecil yaitu 762 dan peramalan produksi untuk 3 bulan mendatang sebesar 1016 buah.

Keywords

roti, peramalan, produksi
These keywords were added by the authors and not by machine. This process is static and keywords cannot be updated except using algorithms or other reasons.

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UMMU Ternate

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Hamka, H., & Tupamahu, Y.M., 2017. ANALISIS PERAMALAN PRODUKSI ROTI PADA GOLDEN BAKERY DI KOTA TERNATE. Agrikan: Jurnal Agribisnis Perikanan 10(1): 60-64. https://doi.org/10.29239/j.agrikan.10.1.60-64
  • Revised

    Not available

  • Accepted

    Not available

  • Published

    30 May 2017

  • DOI

    https://doi.org/10.29239/j.agrikan.10.1.60-64

  • Publisher Name

    Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Pertanian Wuna

  • Print ISSN

    1979-6072

  • Online ISSN

    2621-0193

Subject

  • roti, peramalan, produksi
  • These keywords were added by the authors and not by machine. This process is static and keywords cannot be updated except using algorithms or other reasons.

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