Research article
ANALISIS PERAMALAN PRODUKSI ROTI PADA GOLDEN BAKERY DI KOTA TERNATE

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Abstract

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan mendapatkan metode peramalan penjualan roti yang tepat di Golden Bakery untuk 3 bulan ke depan. Mengingat banyaknya jenis roti yang diproduksi maka penelitian ini dibatasi untuk roti tawar sisir dan cokelat sisir. Metode peramalan yang digunakan, yaitu: metode rata-rata sederhana (simple average), metode rata-rata bergerak (moving average), metode pemulusan eksponensial (simple exponential smoothing). Peramalan penjualan roti tiga bulan yang akan datang menggunakan metode yang terbaik, yaitu metode yang menghasilkan nilai kesalahan terkecil. Metode kesalahan peramalan yang digunakan yaitu The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dan Mean Squared Error (MSE). Hasil penelitian  menunjukkan metode Simple Average memiliki nilai MSE terkecil yaitu 580 dan nilai peramalan produksi adalah 906. Berdasarkan pendekatan nilai MSE maka Golden Bakery dapat memprediksi produksi selama 3 bulan ke depan dengan pendekatan Simple Average sebesar 906 buah roti tiap bulannya. Sedangkan untuk roti cokelat sisir, maka metode Simple Average memiliki nilai MSE terkecil yaitu 762 dan peramalan produksi untuk 3 bulan mendatang sebesar 1016 buah.

Keywords

roti, peramalan, produksi

Funding Information

UMMU Ternate

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Cite this article as:

Hamka, H., & Tupamahu, Y.M., 2017. ANALISIS PERAMALAN PRODUKSI ROTI PADA GOLDEN BAKERY DI KOTA TERNATE. Agrikan: Jurnal Agribisnis Perikanan 10(1): 60-64. https://doi.org/10.29239/j.agrikan.10.1.60-64
  • Submitted
    29 April 2019
  • Revised
    5 November 2020
  • Accepted
    Not available
  • Published
    30 May 2017
  • Issue date
    31 May 2017

Subject

Hamka  Hamka

HamkaHamka, , Indonesia. hamka_agb@yahoo.co.id

Yonette  Maya Tupamahu

YonetteMayaTupamahu, Fakultas Pertanina. Universitas Muhammadiyah Maluku Utara, Indonesia. ymtup@yahoo.co.id

Available online since October 2017

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